A surge of attacks from proxy groups is also probable, according to some Russia watchers. To get a better sense of the current state of the Russian cyber threat against the West, Protocol recently spoke with 20 experts - including threat researchers, former government officials and those with expertise on critical infrastructure and Russia.Ī number of them are concerned that, as soon as later this year, Putin may give the green light for major cyberattacks aimed at disrupting critical infrastructure and supply chains in the West. “Russia could decide that it needs to make a point to the West, in an escalatory way," Martin said, though “the chances of are not high at the moment.” government's National Cyber Security Centre, agreed that Putin’s approach toward the West on cyber may change in response to events on the ground in Ukraine.
In other words, don't lower your shields just yet.Īt the moment, it's clear that Vladimir Putin has made a calculation not to inflame tensions with the West, said Dmitri Alperovitch, the Russian-born cybersecurity and geopolitics expert who co-founded CrowdStrike.īut if things don't go Putin's way on Ukraine and sanctions, he "may very well resort back to cyber to increase pressure on the West," Alperovitch said.Ĭiaran Martin, who was the founding CEO of the U.K.
But that doesn't mean the risk of escalation with the West is gone, numerous experts told Protocol. and Western Europe in response to sanctions and Ukrainian military aid, as many expected. In the four months since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia hasn't intensified its usual pattern of cyberattacks against the U.S.
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